Calgary Housing Market Outlook 2025: Transitioning from Expansion to Stabilization

Calgary’s housing market is moving from a phase of rapid expansion toward stabilization. Robust in-migration and record construction activity fuelled strong growth through 2024. However, moderating population growth, rising vacancy rates, and slowing demand are reshaping dynamics in 2025. While construction remains elevated, developer caution is emerging. Rentals face higher vacancies, resale activity is set for a moderate rebound, and long-term policy supports will help stabilize supply.

Key Trends

Population & Migration

Growth slowing under federal immigration policy changes.
Strong interprovincial inflows from Toronto and Vancouver continue to support demand.
Calgary remains attractive due to relative affordability and quality of life.

Rental Market

Purpose-built rental stock surged ~10% in 2024.
Vacancy rate increased from 1.4% (2023) to 4.8% (2024), expected to rise further in 2025.
Rent growth easing as landlords compete to fill units.
Higher vacancies may reduce demand for investor-owned condo rentals.

Resale Market

Flat activity 2023–2024; modest increase expected in 2025.
Supported by improved borrowing capacity and continued in-migration.
Sales growth constrained by limited listings, which are expected to gradually improve.
Trend toward more balanced resale conditions.

Construction & Development

2024 marked the third record year for housing starts.
Developers showing caution as demand moderates and vacancies rise.
Local government approvals (Nov 2024) provide sustained policy support for new housing, land use changes, and redevelopment.

Implications

For Policymakers: Expect continued need for housing affordability initiatives, but rising vacancies may temporarily ease rent pressures.
For Developers: Elevated supply and slower demand suggest caution; timing new projects will be critical.
For Investors: Slower rent growth and higher vacancies could shift returns in the rental market, while resale housing may present new opportunities as listings loosen.
For Residents: Rising supply should moderate price and rent escalation, enhancing affordability and choice in the housing market.

Outlook: Calgary is transitioning from a high-growth cycle into a more balanced phase. Affordability advantages, migration trends, and supportive policy remain long-term strengths, but near-term adjustments—especially in rentals and new construction—signal moderation ahead.